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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Thursday, 16 October 14
PANAMAX OWNERS RECEIVE A PREMIUM FOR GOING TO INDIA VIA INDONESIA - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Handy/Supra market continues to slide in both hemispheres, said Fearnleys AS in its latest week report. In the Atlantic we see rates co ...
Thursday, 16 October 14
ARE WE GOING TO SHOOT OURSELVES IN THE FOOT ONCE AGAIN? - PANOS MAKRINOS
As the East part of our globe was coming back from its October holidays last week, everyone expected that the Dry Bulk market would follow suit and ...
Wednesday, 15 October 14
PANAMAX: ACTIVITY IN THE PACIFIC WAS UNIMPRESSIVE
The Dry Bulk market noted another weekly decline last week, while the BDI moved below 1,000 points taking down with it expectations that a post hol ...
Wednesday, 15 October 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL TO FRESH MULTI-YEAR LOWS IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in October 2014.
...
Wednesday, 15 October 14
DRY BULK SHIPPING: RATE IMPROVEMENTS ARRIVED AS FORECAST, BUT UNCERTAINTY MOUNTS FOR 2015 DEMAND - BIMCO
BIMCO released its latest short term assessment of the dry bulk market, estimating that over the October-November period, the level of Capesize TC ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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