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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 02 October 14
CAPESIZE - DULL AND WITHOUT MUCH DIRECTION AS IRON ORE AND COAL VOLUMES FAIL TO LIVE UP EXPECTATIONS
Handy
After the recent weeks´ rate increase in the Atlantic we see Panamaxes snapping up handymax and Supra cargoes at much lower levels, p ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
ASIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES TO REMAIN WEAK ON OVERSUPPLY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The thermal coal market in Asia will remain oversupplied in the next 12 months, in spite of on-going rationalisation of production, a ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
PANAMAXES: DEFENSIVE, STRUGGLING TO KEEP ANY FURTHER DECREASES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seemed unable to shake off the trend of the week prior and the BDI remained on a downward slope for the bigger pa ...
Tuesday, 30 September 14
COALVIEW TO PARTICIPATE AT MET COKE WORLD SUMMIT 2014 IN CHICAGO
COALspot.com: Coalview Ltd., LLC(“Coalview”) America's leading fully integrated coal technology and fine coal recovery company prov ...
Monday, 29 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME FALL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producers and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.50 ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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