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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 29 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS LOST WEEK ON WEEK AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average November 2014 flat day on day and lost US$ 0.85 (-1.66%) per mt week on week. The swap also lost US ...
Monday, 29 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL LOST AROUND 5% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in November 2014 decreased US$ 3.55 (-5.10%) month over month and flat week over week.
...
Sunday, 28 September 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market shows a bit weak trend this week.
The BDI was lost 2.42% week on week and closed at 1049 points on 26 Se ...
Sunday, 28 September 14
BERAU AGREES DEAL WITH GOVT, MINING AREA REDUCED - THE JAKARTA POST
Coal miner PT Berau Coal, a subsidiary of Jakarta-listed PT Berau Coal Energy (BRAU), has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the gover ...
Saturday, 27 September 14
OIL MARKET CONTANGO: SPECULATION ON FUTURE PRICES CAN BE A RISKY MOVE, EVEN FOR TANKER OWNERS HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that tanker owners can easily use their vessels as floating storage units for oil, in a bid to exploit the current oil market dyna ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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