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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 07 October 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP HEADED SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in November 2014 decreased US$ 1.10 (-1.64%) month over month and US$ 0.25 (-0.38%) ...
Monday, 06 October 14
' COAL-BY-WIRE' FROM SUMATRA TO JAVA - THE JAKARTA POST
Coal from the island of Sumatra accounts for most of Indonesia’s low-grade lignite, a low-quality coal that receives a poor price in internat ...
Monday, 06 October 14
THE IRON ORE SHIPPING BUSINESS IS FACING SOME ROUGH SEAS - EAST ASIA FORUM
The impact of Chinese demand on global iron ore prices is well known. A less acknowledged consequence of China’s emergence is the transformat ...
Sunday, 05 October 14
BALTIC DRY INDEX SLIPS 1.14%; BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX GAINED 9.91% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down by 1.14 pct and closed at 1037 points this Friday.
The Cape index was down significantly week on week or lost 5 ...
Friday, 03 October 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.8% TO 19.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of co ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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