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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting inv ...
Wednesday, 08 October 14
IS THERE ANY BRIGHT SIDE ON THE DRY BULK SEGMENT? - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
In the movie “Life Of Brian”, a character on a nearby cross was singing the famous “Always look on the bright side of life” ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
TAIPOWER TO IMPORT 525K MT OF LOW ASH AND EXTRA LOW SULFUR SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 525,000 metric tons of low ash and extra low sulfur sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWS A FLAT TO WEAK TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps November 2014 delivery flat week on week and gained US$ 0.10 (-0.20%) per mt day on day. The swap also lost US$ ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
THE RIO TINTO CONFIRMS THAT NO DISCUSSIONS ARE TAKING PLACE WITH GLENCORE
COALspot.com: The board of Rio Tinto notes the recent press speculation regarding a possible combination of Rio Tinto and Glencore.The Rio Tinto bo ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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