We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 13 October 14
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 54.92, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2014 decreased US$ 0.80 (-1.46%) month over month and US$ 0.52 (-0.95%) week over ...
Monday, 13 October 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR DELIVERY Q4' 2014 GAINED WEEK ON WEEK AND DAY ON DAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 gained week on week and day on day.
The swap lost US$ 0.13 (-0.25%) month on mon ...
Monday, 13 October 14
Q1' 2015 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 0.31 PMT HIGHER THAN Q4' 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.66 (-1.00%) month over month and US$ 0.40 (-0.61%) ...
Sunday, 12 October 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: This week all the segments softened. The BDI down 7.13 pct week on week and closed below 1000 points at 963 points.
The Cape ind ...
Saturday, 11 October 14
COAL PRODUCTION RISES ONLY SLIGHTLY AS GOVT LIMITS MINING OPERATIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production rose by only 4 percent in the first nine months of this year, a relatively low increase compared to previous years, as t ...
|
|
|
Showing 3436 to 3440 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
|
| |
| |
|
