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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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