We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
|
|
|
Showing 76 to 80 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
|
| |
| |
|
