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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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