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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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