We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
|
|
|
Showing 61 to 65 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
|
| |
| |
|
