We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
|
|
|
Showing 86 to 90 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
|
| |
| |
|
