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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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