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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Wednesday, 06 August 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
Recent reports that Indonesia’s ban on exports of metal ore concentrates was lifted for the first time in six months for two of its biggest m ...
Wednesday, 06 August 14
SGX SUCCESSFULLY LAUNCHED NEW SGX COAL PRODUCTS
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange (‘SGX’) has announced that, the exchange has successfully launched its new Coking and Thermal Coal pro ...
Monday, 04 August 14
ANNUAL SECOND HALF SURGE IN BRAZILIAN IRON ORE EXPORTS ABOUT TO BEGIN - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Great strength in the capesize market has all along been set to occur during the second half of this year, as that is when Brazilian ...
Monday, 04 August 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP INCHES UP DESPITE LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q4’ 2014 increased US$ 0.15 day on day and US$ 0.13 per mt week on week. But, the swap was lo ...
Monday, 04 August 14
Q1' 15 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 69.37 ON 1 AUGUST 2014; A $ 1.10 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4' 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Coal swap prices are showing a positive move upward this past week. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4, Q1 and Q2 2015 show ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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