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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Monday, 11 August 14
SGX CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DIRECTION HEADING TO NORTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in September 2014 increased US$ 0.50 (+0.74%) day on day and US$ 1.55 (+2.33%)&nbs ...
Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still stan ...
Sunday, 10 August 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: This week the BDI and other segments saw some improvements. The BDI increased by 3.46 pct week on week and closed at 777 points.
...
Friday, 08 August 14
MINING DISPUTE IS CRIPPLING LOCAL ECONOMIES IN EASTERN INDONESIA - JG
- By Iwan Harsono -
It seems as if there’s no end in sight to the series of negotiations between the government and mining companies about ...
Friday, 08 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES ARE REMAINING MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED AT BOTTOM LOW LEVELS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
An improving sentiment with stronger rates and fair demand for prompt tonnage in the Atlantic, both on the Continent and in the Med for the ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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