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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Wednesday, 13 August 14
WEEKLY MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS SNP BROKER
Being at the peak of the holiday season, August is, as usual, the quietest month in terms of snp transactions, yet it is also a time very critical ...
Wednesday, 13 August 14
WHAT DOES PROJECT CARGO REALLY MEAN TO INSURERS?
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Richard Kamppari-Baker, claims manager of FP Marine Risks, explains the challenges of project cargo risk assessment from ...
Wednesday, 13 August 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL AGAIN CLOSE TO 57 MONTHS LOWS
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price in August. HBA for the month of A ...
Monday, 11 August 14
LARGEST CHINESE TRADE SURPLUS EVER RECORDED IN JULY - BIMCO
China recorded a trade surplus of USD 47.3 billion in July 2014. The record high surplus came on the back of very strong export growth while import ...
Monday, 11 August 14
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL SWAPS SEEING SOME POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 increased US$ 0.20 (+0.36%) day on day and US$ 1.30 (+2.41%) per mt week on week. Th ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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