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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Thursday, 21 August 14
PREDICTIONS FROM VARIOUS SHIPPERS AND MINING INDUSTRY FOR 2ND HALF YEAR AND ESPECIALLY Q4 IS POSITIVE
Handy
The activity has increased in both hemispheres this week and we see rates edging up on all trades. TA´s are now paying around 8k whic ...
Thursday, 21 August 14
SHIP OWNERS KEEP SHYING AWAY FOR NEW SHIP INVESTMENTS, OVERALL TREND IS DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have remained in the sidelines of the Sale & Purchasing market for second hand vessels, during most of August, while they also slow ...
Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the loomi ...
Monday, 18 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES TO RISE TO MUCH HIGHER LEVELS THIS YEAR - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Capesize rates ended last week at $15,561/day, which marked a week-on-week increase of $6,167 (66%). Capesize rates have been a ...
Monday, 18 August 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $58.60 FOR SEPTEMBER 2015; UP $4 FROM SEPTEMBER 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.27%) day on day and US$ 0.75 (-1.36%) per mt week on week. Th ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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