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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Monday, 25 August 14
4TH ANNUAL FLOATING TERMINALS
4th Annual Floating Terminals
18-20 Nov 2014
Intercontinental Jakarta Midplaza,
Indonesia
Web Site
The Floating Terminal c ...
Monday, 25 August 14
THE BALTIC DRY IS JUMPING, BUT DON'T DRAW ANY BROAD CONCLUSIONS - NASDAQ
Those who consistently preach doom and gloom and see an economic apocalypse around every corner would make me laugh if it weren’t for the fac ...
Monday, 25 August 14
COAL CEOS: DEMISE OF COAL 'EXAGGERATED' - MARK WILCOX
By Mark Wilcox
Heads of some of the largest coal companies in Wyoming are saying the demise of coal has been exaggerated, though the industry def ...
Monday, 25 August 14
INDO COAL SWAPS W-O-W: NEGATIVE; M-O-M: POSITIVE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.28%) day on day and US$ 0.65 (-1.19%) per mt week on week. Th ...
Monday, 25 August 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED DAY OVER DAY AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in September 2014 increased US$ 0.30 (+0.44%) day on day and decreased US$ 0.20 (- ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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