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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Saturday, 30 August 14
RECOVERY IN SIGHT FOR THE DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET - DREWRY SHIPPING CONSULTANTS
Despite weak freight rates so far this year, Dry Bulk shipping earnings are forecast to recover as demand for both major and minor bulk commodities ...
Friday, 29 August 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.3 PERCENT, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.40 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 29 August 14
ADARO'S PROFITS SINK FURTHER AMID FALL IN COAL PRICES - JP
Adaro Energy, one of the country’s largest coal miners, has reported a 31 percent drop in net profit in the first half of this year as global ...
Friday, 29 August 14
CHINESE LIGNITE IMPORTS: QUANTITY OVER QUALITY? - CLARKSONS
In the first half of 2014, Chinese seaborne coal imports declined 0.4% y-o-y to 148mt, largely reflecting a 3.3% fall in imports of steam coal. Mea ...
Thursday, 28 August 14
PANAMAX: OWNERS CAN GET AROUND USD 16000 FOR A FRONTHAUL; PERIOD MARKET - VERY QUIET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The activity and sentiment is improving in the Atlantic with the general TA rate is up about US$ 800 w-o-w. We see more South American carg ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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