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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Wednesday, 03 September 14
CFR S.CHINA COAL SWAP FOR JAN 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 68.30 PMT; DOWN 2.43% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 0.95 (-1.39%) day on day and US$ 1.40 (-2.03%) week on wee ...
Tuesday, 02 September 14
BERAU COAL HAS AWARDED A CONTRACT EXTENSION TO BUMA FOR 647 MLN BCM OVERBURDEN REMOVAL
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (“DOID”) has announced that its primary operating subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (&l ...
Monday, 01 September 14
GLOBALCOAL WELCOMES TWO NEW MARKET MEMBERS
COALspot.com: globalCOAL® announced today that two Market Members have joined its trading community. Both new Market Members are from the India ...
Sunday, 31 August 14
COAL FREIGHT RATES INTO INDIA FROM INDONESIA FIRM
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to firm this week. BDI up 5.42 percent week ended 29 August and closed at 1147 points while the Ca ...
Saturday, 30 August 14
INDIAN GOVERNMENT SHOULD TAKE NOTICE: THERMAL COAL IMPORT PRICES EXTREMELY LOW - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: Both Indonesian and Australian thermal coal prices are at the lowest levels seen this decade, with Indonesia's monthly benchmark ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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