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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Friday, 08 August 14
U.S PRODUCED 35.80 MMST OF COAL IN JULY; UP 7.89 MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.50 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 08 August 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 19.52% MORE COAL IN JULY FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped 14,036,947 t ...
Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, ...
Thursday, 07 August 14
BULKING UP IN AFRICA: CHINA INFLATES SEABORNE MINERALS EXPORT TRADE - RICHARD SCOTT
Africa’s profile as an exporter of dry bulk commodities is rising. Responding to growing import demand from China, India and other buyers in ...
Wednesday, 06 August 14
CAPES: BUSINESS INTEREST REMAINS SOFT; CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Despite the considerable pressure witnessed in the freight market for most of the size segments, the Dry Bulk Index was able to note ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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