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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Wednesday, 30 July 14
CAPES SEEMED TO BE STRANDED AT THE SAME LEVELS; PANAMAXES MANAGED TO SLIGHTLY REVIVE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market took a breath this past week, as both Panamaxes and Supras started to see a small influx of activity, which was j ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
TOTAL SELLS ITS SOUTH AFRICAN COAL MINING ASSETS TO EXXARO
Total has signed an agreement with Exxaro Resources Ltd for the sale of its 100% stake in Total Coal South Africa (TCSA), its coal-producing affili ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
GENCO: DRY BULK SHIPPING VALUATIONS NO LONGER ANCHORED TO DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW METHOD - WEIL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Discounted cash flow analysis is a mainstay among the valuation methodologies used by restructuring professionals and bank ...
Tuesday, 29 July 14
SHIP OWNERS' DEMAND OF NEW VESSELS DENTED AS A RESULT OF LOWER FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The sharp downward direction of dry bulk freight rates has had a negative impact on investors’ secondhand buying appetite that wait to see th ...
Monday, 28 July 14
Q3' 14, SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED $ 0.08 DAY ON DAY AND $ 0.68 WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 increased by just US$ 0.08 day on day and US$ 0.68 week on week. The swap was lost U ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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