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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Thursday, 24 July 14
INDONESIA'S JUNE 2014 COAL EXPORT VOLUME DOWN 6.82%; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.70* ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
HANDY: SOUTH AFRICA SOFTENED A BIT, HERE RATES ARE AT AROUND 8K +150K BB FOR TRIPS EAST - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The handy market in the Atlantic is going sideways and a tick down on low activity. Levels hoovering around USD 5k on Supras. The SMX marke ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTERS ARE REQUIRED TO OBTAIN ET-BATUBARA UNDER LATEST TRADE MINISTRY'S NEW REGULATION
COALspot.com: Indonesia's trade ministry has issued regulation No. 39/M-DAG/PER/7/2014 which is requires exporters of power plant coal as ...
Wednesday, 23 July 14
PANAMAXES WERE BACK ON A DOWNWARD COURSE; CAPES WERE FEELING THE MOST PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market was on a downward spiral this week, with the BDI noting another week-on-week decline of the magnitude of 10% this ...
Wednesday, 23 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In Australia, the world’s largest mining group, BHP Billiton, will beat the iron ore export target of more than 220 million tonnes for 2014. ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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