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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Monday, 22 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS LOST ON DAY, WEEK AND MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 3.10 (-4.50%) month over month and $ 0.95 PT MT week over ...
Monday, 22 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS LOST WEEK ON WEEK AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 increased US$ 0.35 (+0.69%) day on day and lost US$ 0.30 (-0.58%) per mt week on week. ...
Sunday, 21 September 14
CAPE INDEX LOST 17% W-O-W ; BALTIC DRY PLUNGES 106 POINTS
COALspot.com: This week the freight market softened a bit compared to last week.
BDI fell 8.97% week on week and closed BDI at 1075 points on ...
Friday, 19 September 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT AT +0.1% - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.20 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 19 September 14
PRICES FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS HAVEN'T CORRECTED ENOUGH, DESPITE LOWER THAN EXPECTED FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A lot has been said and written about the looming dry bulk market recovery over the past few months. However, even if this hasn’t been materi ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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