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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Thursday, 18 September 14
INDONESIA'S JULY COAL EXPORT VOLUME DROPPED 5.13% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.65* ...
Thursday, 18 September 14
PANAMAX : US GULF/CHINA FRONTHAUL ARE NOW PAYING TYPICALLY 14.5K + 450K BB - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
We still see a firming tendency in the Atlantic and it is still ECSA and USG leading on. USG/Cont now up in about USD 17/18k for a Smax whi ...
Thursday, 18 September 14
ELECTRONIC BILLS OF LADING: A GUIDE TO PAPERLESS TRADING WHICH HAS TAKEN THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY BY STORM
Bimco has recently developed and published a charter party clause that specifically addresses the use of electronic bills of lading. Increasing use ...
Wednesday, 17 September 14
PANAMAX: LIMITED INTEREST IN BOTH BASINS; RISING TONNAGE - INTERMODAL
With the week starting off at a fast pace and with the positive momentum from the previous Friday seemingly sticking around for a bit longer, most ...
Wednesday, 17 September 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Since the onslaught of 2013 the rising tide of asset prices had been primarily driven by the increasing freight market conditions and the improving ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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