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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Thursday, 25 September 14
LACK OF COAL BUSINESS PUSHING DOWN PANAMAX EARNINGS IN PACIFIC
Handy
In the Atlantic we see rates steady climbing upwards. More coal cargoes out of USG and USEC are helping the TA market which is up some USD ...
Wednesday, 24 September 14
ADARO AGREED TO REDUCE ITS CONCESSION AREA TO 31,379.8 HECTARES
COALspot.com: PT Adaro Energy Tbk (Adaro Energy) today announced that, PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), its wholly owned subsidiary, entered into a M ...
Wednesday, 24 September 14
CAPESIZE: ACTIVITY IN BOTH BASINS WAS UNIMPRESSIVE
COALspot.com: The end of the week prior seems to have marked the tone for the days that followed, with the Dry Bulk market giving up a significant ...
Tuesday, 23 September 14
MEDCO TO INCREASE ITS COAL PRODUCTION NEXT YEAR
COALspot.com: PT Medco Energi Internasional is looking to increase its coal production next year, supported by the launch of operations at its Duta ...
Monday, 22 September 14
COAL SECTOR CHAOS - GENESIS TO REVELATION - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com: “Let there be light”, intends the government of India but the fuel side of the story paints a blackout. The recent Suprem ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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