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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Thursday, 25 September 14
LACK OF COAL BUSINESS PUSHING DOWN PANAMAX EARNINGS IN PACIFIC
Handy
In the Atlantic we see rates steady climbing upwards. More coal cargoes out of USG and USEC are helping the TA market which is up some USD ...
Wednesday, 24 September 14
ADARO AGREED TO REDUCE ITS CONCESSION AREA TO 31,379.8 HECTARES
COALspot.com: PT Adaro Energy Tbk (Adaro Energy) today announced that, PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), its wholly owned subsidiary, entered into a M ...
Wednesday, 24 September 14
CAPESIZE: ACTIVITY IN BOTH BASINS WAS UNIMPRESSIVE
COALspot.com: The end of the week prior seems to have marked the tone for the days that followed, with the Dry Bulk market giving up a significant ...
Tuesday, 23 September 14
MEDCO TO INCREASE ITS COAL PRODUCTION NEXT YEAR
COALspot.com: PT Medco Energi Internasional is looking to increase its coal production next year, supported by the launch of operations at its Duta ...
Monday, 22 September 14
COAL SECTOR CHAOS - GENESIS TO REVELATION - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com: “Let there be light”, intends the government of India but the fuel side of the story paints a blackout. The recent Suprem ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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