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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Saturday, 27 September 14
OIL MARKET CONTANGO: SPECULATION ON FUTURE PRICES CAN BE A RISKY MOVE, EVEN FOR TANKER OWNERS HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that tanker owners can easily use their vessels as floating storage units for oil, in a bid to exploit the current oil market dyna ...
Saturday, 27 September 14
MORE COAL MINERS AGREE TO AMEND CONTRACTS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is in a rush to beat a deadline for the conclusion of numerous memorandums of understanding (MoUs) with t ...
Friday, 26 September 14
INDIA SUPREME COURT RULING TO HIT STEEL, UTILITY EARNINGS, SAYS FITCH
COALspot.com: The 24 September Supreme Court of India (SCI) decision to cancel almost every coal block allocation since 1993 will have a negative f ...
Friday, 26 September 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 1.8% WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.80 million short tons (mmst) of c ...
Friday, 26 September 14
ORACLE SIGNS EPC FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT WITH SEPCO FOR COAL MINE AND POWER PLANT IN PAKISTAN
COALspot.com: Oracle Coalfields PLC, the UK developer of a lignite coal mine and power plant in the south-eastern Sindh Province, Pakistan, has ann ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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