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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Thursday, 02 October 14
CAPESIZE - DULL AND WITHOUT MUCH DIRECTION AS IRON ORE AND COAL VOLUMES FAIL TO LIVE UP EXPECTATIONS
Handy
After the recent weeks´ rate increase in the Atlantic we see Panamaxes snapping up handymax and Supra cargoes at much lower levels, p ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
ASIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES TO REMAIN WEAK ON OVERSUPPLY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The thermal coal market in Asia will remain oversupplied in the next 12 months, in spite of on-going rationalisation of production, a ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
PANAMAXES: DEFENSIVE, STRUGGLING TO KEEP ANY FURTHER DECREASES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seemed unable to shake off the trend of the week prior and the BDI remained on a downward slope for the bigger pa ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the down ...
Tuesday, 30 September 14
COALVIEW TO PARTICIPATE AT MET COKE WORLD SUMMIT 2014 IN CHICAGO
COALspot.com: Coalview Ltd., LLC(“Coalview”) America's leading fully integrated coal technology and fine coal recovery company prov ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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