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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS ON RISE; EARNINGS FALL ON LOWER SELLING PRICES
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.84* ...
Wednesday, 25 June 14
THE PANAMAX MARKET REACHED FRESH LOWS FOR THE YEAR, SAYS INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a slight decrease, but this image of stability is merely representative of freight rat ...
Wednesday, 25 June 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
During his recent visit in London, China's Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China's economy, the world's second largest after the US ...
Tuesday, 24 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL MINER TARGETS RP 313 BILLION IPO
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal miner PT Mitrabara Adiperdana is aiming to raise up to Rp 313 billion to Rp 368 billion (approximately $26.133 millio ...
Monday, 23 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY LOST 8.60% Y-O-Y;4.80% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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