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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 July 14
HANDY BULKERS PROVE TO BE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS OVER THE PAST WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The Handy dry bulker proved to be the most sought after ship by ship owners active in the second hand market, which saw a slight decline in terms o ...
Wednesday, 02 July 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
After 6 months, 57 ministerial meetings and 67 political agreements, the journey of the Greek Presidency in the EU reached its end yesterday; only ...
Tuesday, 01 July 14
INDIAN POWER PLANT COAL STOCKPILES VERY LOW
COALspot.com: According to today's Weekly Dry Bulk Report published by Commodore Research, Indian power plant coal stockpiles have now fallen t ...
Monday, 30 June 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL PRICES ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO RECOVER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports release ...
Monday, 30 June 14
WEEKLY CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES; Q1'15 LOST US$ 4.55 PMT IN A WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 fell US$ 5.25 month on month on Friday, dipping under $69 a tone. The CFR South Ch ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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