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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 30 June 14
INDO - INDIA FREIGHT RATES CONTINUE TO WEAK
COALspot.com: The latest dry Index shows that average all-in spot freight declined, the Panamax and Supramax slipping by 9.11 percent and 4% respec ...
Friday, 27 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LOOKING FOR UPSIDE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept up its lacklustre performance during the past week, as evidenced by the course of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The BDI ...
Thursday, 26 June 14
PANAMAX : A PACIFIC ROUND PAYS AROUND US$ 3K DAILY - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
In the Atlantic there has been little activity which again has caused rates to slip across all trades. TA´s are now down to US$ 5,500 ...
Thursday, 26 June 14
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR TOTAL 750K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR 3CY
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) has issued a new tender for supply of total 250,000 MT of bituminous co ...
Thursday, 26 June 14
COAL DIVESTMENT CAMPAIGNS COME WITH RISKY UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES - WCA
Last week I presented to the Expert Group on investments in coal and petroleum companies, the body set up to advise the Norwegian Government on whe ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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