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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market decided once again to contradict everybody and show it's unpredictable nature. Opinions for recovery in the second half of 2014 are now challenged and some are already extending their predictions for recovery to the final quarter. Once again we see demand for seabourne trade not being enough to maximize utilization of the current fleet. China's economy, a decisive factor of dry bulk ship utilization, is slowing down and its iron ore and coal stockpiles remain high.
On the other hand although suppressed, there are substantiated views that the market will turn and whilst the BPI is around September 2012 lows, we see buying interest in modern bulk carriers, from at least a handful of buyers, trying to take advantage of the depressed market. The asset prices are definitely correcting but sellers are not really prepared to meet buyers' aiming levels just yet. Only if the market conditions remain where they are now will we see some sellers reconsider.
A falling market nevertheless, always offers great opportunities and in fact some of the best buys are done during the summer sloth. On the supply side, over the past year, we have recorded a net growth of the fleet of about 370 vessels; this is a 4% increase which in my view is not what has killed the market. However, the rationalization of the orderbook did not last for too long. The orderbook has increased from about 1,400 vessels, representing 16% of the trading fleet, this time last year, to 1,734 vessels this year representing 20% of the dry fleet.
Over-ordering of ultramax size bulk carriers has been lengthily discussed and criticized, and it's a fact that from 388 vessels in June 2013 we now have 682 on order which is a 76% increase! Although not all of them will be materialized, it will no doubt put a lot of pressure in the supramax and the panamax markets going forward. The silver-lining is that while it’s no more than two years since the panamax orderbook also stood at more than 650 vessels, the freight market still managed to improve in 2013 showing that solid demand can somewhat support a little extravagance in ordering.
The panamax fleet has increased by a little more than 130 vessels or 7% following a record of deliveries in 2013. The orderbook of panamax up-to post-panamax size has actually declined from 382 vessels on order to 342 vessels (down from 650 two years ago). We feel that, once the first new generation vessels start trading showing their economic characteristics, the next shipbuilding orders will be in this size which lagged behind in the vessel ordering spree of 2013.
The Handysize fleet has grown by only 17 vessels the past year. The orderbook today represents a healthy 18% of the fleet, and has decreased since the beginning of 2014. There are many new and proven designs from 35,000 up to 43,000 tons deadweight offered by the builders these days and the sector has demonstrated a relative stability compared to the volatile bigger sizes. It remains attractive as a sector due to its low volatility but there is skepticism if the investment will ever provide lucrative returns.
As a result of the orderbook and the market conditions, new building inquiries are limited.
Buyers are waiting for the prices to follow the market and are currently only discussing with the very few shipyards that offer prices below the market. However, with most of the reputable shipbuilders offering their last 2016, or in some cases 2017 slots, there is no rush to follow the market; therefore, it will take some time for the prices to return to more attractive levels.
By Theodore Ntalakos - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 June 14
COAL SWAPS DROPS FURTHER MONTH ON MONTH ON WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 6.91 percent month on month and closed at US$ 69.00 per mt a ...
Sunday, 22 June 14
THE PANAMAX COAL FREIGHT FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA SLIPPED THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, fell slightly on Friday ...
Friday, 20 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR UPSIDE ON ROBUST SEABORNE IRON ORE TRADE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market hasn’t been able to justify the heightened expectations this year. Yesterday, the Baltic Dry Index managed to inch forwar ...
Friday, 20 June 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.8% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Thursday, 19 June 14
PANAMAX: VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING THE ALL TIME LOW RECORD - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Supra-Handy market is experiencing the same market slow down as its bigger sister markets however not to the same extent. We see TA rat ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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