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Wednesday, 25 June 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
During his recent visit in London, China's Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China's economy, the world's second largest after the US, will not face a hard landing and will maintain a medium/high growth for the long run! Beijing has set a minimum 7.5% annual growth. Mr Li, refrained from rolling out any strong stimulus package to support his government’s target, and instead said that policy will focus more on “targeted measures” to secure and ensure a sustained rate in the future. The Chinese economy expanded 7.4% in the first quarter of the year, down from an increase of 7.7% in the fourth quarter of last year.
IMF's forecast for 2015 is around 7% which is lower than the government's long run target of 7.5%, so it will be interesting to see what Beijing will do to contradict the “Cassandras”. Decreased demand for coal and iron ore, together with a depressed grain season is mostly responsible for today's market levels. The BDI at the timing of writing stands at 867 points, led by the weakest panamax rates seen over the past 20 months.
During the first half of the year, iron ore imports by China fell largely due to seasonality. Additionally to this, stockpiles at Chinese terminals, which have provided a safety valve in an oversupplied market by restocking the commodity, are currently very close to cover their physical storage capacity, hence further restocking can only be done to a limited extent. These facts, together with the “colossal” supply of tonnage, have put pressure on rates for capes and panamaxes.
On the other hand, iron ore trade in the second half of the year and especially fourth quarter is expected to pick up due to the seasonality of the trade. This together with the fact that shipments out of Brazil have yet to break out of their previous highs and have only recently shown signs of strength, can provide a great support for rates. This is also important because shipments from Brazil take much longer to deliver than shipments from Australia, therefore adding more tonne-miles to the mix. So if iron ore exports out of Brazil do rise out of their sideways trend for 2014, a much larger number of Capesize and Panamax vessels should be demanded over the long term, something which should eventually lead to a spike.
On the smaller sizes, South American grain season was off to a slow start. Traditionally exports from Brazil and Argentina tend to rise in April and start cooling off in July. April's exports this year stood at 12mil tonnes compared with the 16mil tonnes last year. One could say that economic issues in Argentina and its depreciated currency could have influenced farmers in keeping their crops in order to sell them at a later date. This remains to be seen, however for the time being a poor grain season has put a lot of pressure on smaller sized vessels. North America's crop output this year is expected to be high, however it usually peaks from September onwards, hence the impact shall not be seen over the summer.
Weak charter rates and poor market sentiment paired with over inflated asset values, has led to a slowdown in activity in the second hand and new building markets. The price gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas has become wider with many Sellers having decided to withdrawn their assets from the snp market and possibly return sometime during Q3-Q4, believing that by then freight rates will have recovered and hence asset prices will have firmed. This is definitely a risky decision for those who want/have to sell because if the market doesn't recover by the end of the year as most expect, then the pressure will be much more on the Sellers’ side and therefore they will have to bridge the gap by moving down to Buyers’ ideas and offering even bigger discounts off last dones than those currently required.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 June 14
RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 4.221 MMT OF COAL TO SOUTHERN ASIAN COUNTRIES IN MAY
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 5.58 million tons ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
RBCT SOUTH AFRICA SHIPPED 21% LESS COAL IN APRIL COMPARED TO MARCH EXPORTS
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 5.45 million tons ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
PANAMAX : THIS WEEK STARTED IN A SLOW PACE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
After last week's silent and unexciting week we see some more activity this week, especially from the South American market. The rates ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 2.91 MMT OF COAL IN THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The figure constitutes a 4.30 percent higher compared to the previous week, following a week on week decreased of 19.13 percent recor ...
Wednesday, 04 June 14
SKULD: DIVERSIFICATION AND A ROBUST BOTTOM LINE
In February, I was delighted to ring in the new policy year with the Skuld team following a solid renewal round and a strong year. 2013 was, in man ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
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