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Wednesday, 25 June 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 During his recent visit in London, China's Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China's economy, the world's second largest after the US, will not face a hard landing and will maintain a medium/high growth for the long run! Beijing has set a minimum 7.5% annual growth. Mr Li, refrained from rolling out any strong stimulus package to support his government’s target, and instead said that policy will focus more on “targeted measures” to secure and ensure a sustained rate in the future. The Chinese economy expanded 7.4% in the first quarter of the year, down from an increase of 7.7% in the fourth quarter of last year.
IMF's forecast for 2015 is around 7% which is lower than the government's long run target of 7.5%, so it will be interesting to see what Beijing will do to contradict the “Cassandras”. Decreased demand for coal and iron ore, together with a depressed grain season is mostly responsible for today's market levels. The BDI at the timing of writing stands at 867 points, led by the weakest panamax rates seen over the past 20 months.
During the first half of the year, iron ore imports by China fell largely due to seasonality. Additionally to this, stockpiles at Chinese terminals, which have provided a safety valve in an oversupplied market by restocking the commodity, are currently very close to cover their physical storage capacity, hence further restocking can only be done to a limited extent. These facts, together with the “colossal” supply of tonnage, have put pressure on rates for capes and panamaxes.
On the other hand, iron ore trade in the second half of the year and especially fourth quarter is expected to pick up due to the seasonality of the trade. This together with the fact that shipments out of Brazil have yet to break out of their previous highs and have only recently shown signs of strength, can provide a great support for rates. This is also important because shipments from Brazil take much longer to deliver than shipments from Australia, therefore adding more tonne-miles to the mix. So if iron ore exports out of Brazil do rise out of their sideways trend for 2014, a much larger number of Capesize and Panamax vessels should be demanded over the long term, something which should eventually lead to a spike.
On the smaller sizes, South American grain season was off to a slow start. Traditionally exports from Brazil and Argentina tend to rise in April and start cooling off in July. April's exports this year stood at 12mil tonnes compared with the 16mil tonnes last year. One could say that economic issues in Argentina and its depreciated currency could have influenced farmers in keeping their crops in order to sell them at a later date. This remains to be seen, however for the time being a poor grain season has put a lot of pressure on smaller sized vessels. North America's crop output this year is expected to be high, however it usually peaks from September onwards, hence the impact shall not be seen over the summer.
Weak charter rates and poor market sentiment paired with over inflated asset values, has led to a slowdown in activity in the second hand and new building markets. The price gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas has become wider with many Sellers having decided to withdrawn their assets from the snp market and possibly return sometime during Q3-Q4, believing that by then freight rates will have recovered and hence asset prices will have firmed. This is definitely a risky decision for those who want/have to sell because if the market doesn't recover by the end of the year as most expect, then the pressure will be much more on the Sellers’ side and therefore they will have to bridge the gap by moving down to Buyers’ ideas and offering even bigger discounts off last dones than those currently required.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 June 14
CONSOLIDATION IS THE ' NAME OF THE GAME' WHEN IT COMES TO SHIPYARDS ACROSS ASIA - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Intense competition, a swelling of new greenfield shipyards over the past few years mainly in China, especially prior to the 2008 global financial ...
Wednesday, 11 June 14
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME AND REVENUE SLIPS 2.75% AND 6.73% RESPECTIVELY IN APRIL
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.8* b ...
Wednesday, 11 June 14
BPI TOUCHING A NEW LOW FOR THE YEAR
The Dry Bulk market closed off the week positively, on the back of firming Capesize rates, while the market overall continues to face a very challe ...
Monday, 09 June 14
GOVT GETS TOUGH ON ILLEGAL MINING, SUSPENDS LICENSES - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has temporarily suspended the licenses of 62 mineral and coal transportation companies as part of its efforts to curb illegal mining ...
Monday, 09 June 14
INDO SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS FOR Q3,Q4 OF 2014 AND Q1 2015: LOST ON DAY AND MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 continue last week’s trend or lost on day, week and on month according to Asia ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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