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Wednesday, 25 June 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 During his recent visit in London, China's Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China's economy, the world's second largest after the US, will not face a hard landing and will maintain a medium/high growth for the long run! Beijing has set a minimum 7.5% annual growth. Mr Li, refrained from rolling out any strong stimulus package to support his government’s target, and instead said that policy will focus more on “targeted measures” to secure and ensure a sustained rate in the future. The Chinese economy expanded 7.4% in the first quarter of the year, down from an increase of 7.7% in the fourth quarter of last year.
IMF's forecast for 2015 is around 7% which is lower than the government's long run target of 7.5%, so it will be interesting to see what Beijing will do to contradict the “Cassandras”. Decreased demand for coal and iron ore, together with a depressed grain season is mostly responsible for today's market levels. The BDI at the timing of writing stands at 867 points, led by the weakest panamax rates seen over the past 20 months.
During the first half of the year, iron ore imports by China fell largely due to seasonality. Additionally to this, stockpiles at Chinese terminals, which have provided a safety valve in an oversupplied market by restocking the commodity, are currently very close to cover their physical storage capacity, hence further restocking can only be done to a limited extent. These facts, together with the “colossal” supply of tonnage, have put pressure on rates for capes and panamaxes.
On the other hand, iron ore trade in the second half of the year and especially fourth quarter is expected to pick up due to the seasonality of the trade. This together with the fact that shipments out of Brazil have yet to break out of their previous highs and have only recently shown signs of strength, can provide a great support for rates. This is also important because shipments from Brazil take much longer to deliver than shipments from Australia, therefore adding more tonne-miles to the mix. So if iron ore exports out of Brazil do rise out of their sideways trend for 2014, a much larger number of Capesize and Panamax vessels should be demanded over the long term, something which should eventually lead to a spike.
On the smaller sizes, South American grain season was off to a slow start. Traditionally exports from Brazil and Argentina tend to rise in April and start cooling off in July. April's exports this year stood at 12mil tonnes compared with the 16mil tonnes last year. One could say that economic issues in Argentina and its depreciated currency could have influenced farmers in keeping their crops in order to sell them at a later date. This remains to be seen, however for the time being a poor grain season has put a lot of pressure on smaller sized vessels. North America's crop output this year is expected to be high, however it usually peaks from September onwards, hence the impact shall not be seen over the summer.
Weak charter rates and poor market sentiment paired with over inflated asset values, has led to a slowdown in activity in the second hand and new building markets. The price gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas has become wider with many Sellers having decided to withdrawn their assets from the snp market and possibly return sometime during Q3-Q4, believing that by then freight rates will have recovered and hence asset prices will have firmed. This is definitely a risky decision for those who want/have to sell because if the market doesn't recover by the end of the year as most expect, then the pressure will be much more on the Sellers’ side and therefore they will have to bridge the gap by moving down to Buyers’ ideas and offering even bigger discounts off last dones than those currently required.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 June 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS LOST GROUND THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 02 June 14
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP WAS SHOWING A POSITIVE MOVE IN Q4, INSTEAD OF THIS WEEK'S WEAK TREND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 3.39 percent month on month and closed at US$ 72.65 per mt as on F ...
Sunday, 01 June 14
INDO - INDIA SUPRMAX FREIGHT RATES CONTINUED TO DOWN THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was soft this past week as all sectors soften particularly Panamax index was lost 129 points or 12.88% week on wee ...
Friday, 30 May 14
CLEAN COAL PROCESSING & CONVERSION ASIA SUMMIT 2014
Clean Coal Processing & Conversion Asia Summit 2014 will be held on Nov 20-21st, 2014 in Jakarta, Indonesia.
With the cooperation of ...
Friday, 30 May 14
US COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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