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Wednesday, 25 June 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 During his recent visit in London, China's Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China's economy, the world's second largest after the US, will not face a hard landing and will maintain a medium/high growth for the long run! Beijing has set a minimum 7.5% annual growth. Mr Li, refrained from rolling out any strong stimulus package to support his government’s target, and instead said that policy will focus more on “targeted measures” to secure and ensure a sustained rate in the future. The Chinese economy expanded 7.4% in the first quarter of the year, down from an increase of 7.7% in the fourth quarter of last year.
IMF's forecast for 2015 is around 7% which is lower than the government's long run target of 7.5%, so it will be interesting to see what Beijing will do to contradict the “Cassandras”. Decreased demand for coal and iron ore, together with a depressed grain season is mostly responsible for today's market levels. The BDI at the timing of writing stands at 867 points, led by the weakest panamax rates seen over the past 20 months.
During the first half of the year, iron ore imports by China fell largely due to seasonality. Additionally to this, stockpiles at Chinese terminals, which have provided a safety valve in an oversupplied market by restocking the commodity, are currently very close to cover their physical storage capacity, hence further restocking can only be done to a limited extent. These facts, together with the “colossal” supply of tonnage, have put pressure on rates for capes and panamaxes.
On the other hand, iron ore trade in the second half of the year and especially fourth quarter is expected to pick up due to the seasonality of the trade. This together with the fact that shipments out of Brazil have yet to break out of their previous highs and have only recently shown signs of strength, can provide a great support for rates. This is also important because shipments from Brazil take much longer to deliver than shipments from Australia, therefore adding more tonne-miles to the mix. So if iron ore exports out of Brazil do rise out of their sideways trend for 2014, a much larger number of Capesize and Panamax vessels should be demanded over the long term, something which should eventually lead to a spike.
On the smaller sizes, South American grain season was off to a slow start. Traditionally exports from Brazil and Argentina tend to rise in April and start cooling off in July. April's exports this year stood at 12mil tonnes compared with the 16mil tonnes last year. One could say that economic issues in Argentina and its depreciated currency could have influenced farmers in keeping their crops in order to sell them at a later date. This remains to be seen, however for the time being a poor grain season has put a lot of pressure on smaller sized vessels. North America's crop output this year is expected to be high, however it usually peaks from September onwards, hence the impact shall not be seen over the summer.
Weak charter rates and poor market sentiment paired with over inflated asset values, has led to a slowdown in activity in the second hand and new building markets. The price gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas has become wider with many Sellers having decided to withdrawn their assets from the snp market and possibly return sometime during Q3-Q4, believing that by then freight rates will have recovered and hence asset prices will have firmed. This is definitely a risky decision for those who want/have to sell because if the market doesn't recover by the end of the year as most expect, then the pressure will be much more on the Sellers’ side and therefore they will have to bridge the gap by moving down to Buyers’ ideas and offering even bigger discounts off last dones than those currently required.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 29 May 14
PEABODY ENERGY CHAIRMAN RECEIVES WCA AWARD
The World Coal Association has presented Gregory H. Boyce, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), with the 2014 Chairm ...
Thursday, 29 May 14
HANDY : THE SUPRAS ARE BEING TRADED AROUND 13K FOR SHORTER UPTO 1 YEAR PERIOD
Handy
The week started off with bank holidays in London and very little happening. This trend has continued and we believe it will continue into ...
Wednesday, 28 May 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure during this past week, with all indices pointing down compared to the previous Friday. Th ...
Tuesday, 27 May 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 19.13% LESS COAL THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 26 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, ...
Monday, 26 May 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL SWAP Q1' 15 DELIVERIES CLOSED AT US$ 59.40 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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