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Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government target of 200 Gigawatts (GW) nuclear power capacity by 2030 due to a number of constraints. The report, titled 'Are China's nuclear power plans achievable?', concludes that while there will be significant progress, with nuclear capacity increasing from 14.6 GW in 2013 to 175 GW by 2030, the missed targets will translate into opportunities for coal producers to capture additional demand growth.
Mr Gavin Thompson, Head of Asia Pacific Gas & Power research for Wood Mackenzie says, "China's environmental measures will drive notable nuclear capacity growth. Additionally, uranium supply will be available for China. However, remaining challenges will result in nuclear falling short of government targets. The government targets 200 GW of nuclear capacity, which would make up 11% of the power generation mix by 2030. In reality, we forecast nuclear capacity to reach 175 GW by then, making up just ten percent of the power generation mix: equivalent to a 2.3% annual growth, from 14.6 GW of nuclear capacity in 2013."
Wood Mackenzie says that by 2030, China's nuclear capacity will account for 30% of the world's total nuclear fleet. Mr Thompson adds, "Putting things into context, in 2013 China made up a mere 4.5% of the global nuclear fleet. Therefore the growth we expect in this timeframe is phenomenal, even if targets are not met."
"What is noteworthy about our forecast is that despite environmental measures pushing for a reduction in coal-fired power generation in China, a shortfall in nuclear capacity will create additional opportunities for coal suppliers, on top of coal remaining the dominant source of base-load electricity," Thompson explains.
Wood Mackenzie's nuclear generation forecast reveals a 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) gap of base-load electricity supply. Coal is expected to meet 125 TWh of the gap while natural gas and renewables accounts for the remainder. Though natural gas production and imports will significantly increase, it will be insufficient to prevent coal from accounting for 64% of the power generation mix by 2030. The report highlights that although coal's share will decline from 75% in 2013, due to the rapid growth in natural gas and renewables capacity, coal will still see net volume growth. Additionally, the one percent upside for coal from nuclear not meeting targets will translate to an additional coal demand of 63 million tonnes per year (mmtpa) by 2025 and 55 mmtpa by 2030.
"Our expectations for a lower level of installed nuclear capacity compared to the government's target are based on a number of factors: operational and siting challenges; constraints on the pace of local nuclear technology development; lack of skilled and trained personnel; lack of supporting infrastructure for uranium fuel fabrication and disposal; and a lack of full support by the public in building inland plants. As such, it's likely that some of the planned and proposed capacity build will be delayed or cancelled," Thompson elaborates.
Mr Thompson concludes, "We took into account these challenges that hold back the development of nuclear but still see China making incredible progress and coming close to government targets of 200 GW by 2030. Our nuclear outlook for China reinforces Wood Mackenzie's view that coal will continue to play a dominant role in power generation in the foreseeable future, even with the successful implementation of new environmental measures. While nuclear will moderate the growth in coal-fired generation, China's coal story is far from over."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Tuesday, 22 April 14
INDONESIAN MARCH COAL EXPORT VOLUME SURGE 9.12% TO 35.54 MMT
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.9 ...
Tuesday, 22 April 14
NEWCASTLE WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FELL 13.33% THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 21 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Monday, 21 April 14
Q1'15 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWING A POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q2’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
Monday, 21 April 14
Q4 2014 AND Q1 2015 COAL SWAPS CLOSED MARGINALLY HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2 PRICES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 0.87 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.15 per mt as ...
Monday, 21 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET UPS AND - MOST RECENTLY - DOWNS OFFERS NO ROOM FOR RELAXING AMONG DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's latest demise, with the market retrating once again, since the end of March, has come at a time, when most ship owners ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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