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Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government target of 200 Gigawatts (GW) nuclear power capacity by 2030 due to a number of constraints. The report, titled 'Are China's nuclear power plans achievable?', concludes that while there will be significant progress, with nuclear capacity increasing from 14.6 GW in 2013 to 175 GW by 2030, the missed targets will translate into opportunities for coal producers to capture additional demand growth.
Mr Gavin Thompson, Head of Asia Pacific Gas & Power research for Wood Mackenzie says, "China's environmental measures will drive notable nuclear capacity growth. Additionally, uranium supply will be available for China. However, remaining challenges will result in nuclear falling short of government targets. The government targets 200 GW of nuclear capacity, which would make up 11% of the power generation mix by 2030. In reality, we forecast nuclear capacity to reach 175 GW by then, making up just ten percent of the power generation mix: equivalent to a 2.3% annual growth, from 14.6 GW of nuclear capacity in 2013."
Wood Mackenzie says that by 2030, China's nuclear capacity will account for 30% of the world's total nuclear fleet. Mr Thompson adds, "Putting things into context, in 2013 China made up a mere 4.5% of the global nuclear fleet. Therefore the growth we expect in this timeframe is phenomenal, even if targets are not met."
"What is noteworthy about our forecast is that despite environmental measures pushing for a reduction in coal-fired power generation in China, a shortfall in nuclear capacity will create additional opportunities for coal suppliers, on top of coal remaining the dominant source of base-load electricity," Thompson explains.
Wood Mackenzie's nuclear generation forecast reveals a 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) gap of base-load electricity supply. Coal is expected to meet 125 TWh of the gap while natural gas and renewables accounts for the remainder. Though natural gas production and imports will significantly increase, it will be insufficient to prevent coal from accounting for 64% of the power generation mix by 2030. The report highlights that although coal's share will decline from 75% in 2013, due to the rapid growth in natural gas and renewables capacity, coal will still see net volume growth. Additionally, the one percent upside for coal from nuclear not meeting targets will translate to an additional coal demand of 63 million tonnes per year (mmtpa) by 2025 and 55 mmtpa by 2030.
"Our expectations for a lower level of installed nuclear capacity compared to the government's target are based on a number of factors: operational and siting challenges; constraints on the pace of local nuclear technology development; lack of skilled and trained personnel; lack of supporting infrastructure for uranium fuel fabrication and disposal; and a lack of full support by the public in building inland plants. As such, it's likely that some of the planned and proposed capacity build will be delayed or cancelled," Thompson elaborates.
Mr Thompson concludes, "We took into account these challenges that hold back the development of nuclear but still see China making incredible progress and coming close to government targets of 200 GW by 2030. Our nuclear outlook for China reinforces Wood Mackenzie's view that coal will continue to play a dominant role in power generation in the foreseeable future, even with the successful implementation of new environmental measures. While nuclear will moderate the growth in coal-fired generation, China's coal story is far from over."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Sunday, 20 April 14
FREIGHT RATES END WEEK ON WEAK NOTE - VISTAAR
Wish you all Happy Easter.
The freight market continued to its downwards as BDI was fell 7.187 percent to 930 points week on week.
The ...
Friday, 18 April 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 1% TO 18.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 17 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET ON RETREAT MODE, WHILE NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY STALLS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on retreating this week, a pattern which emerged since late March. Yesterday the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended yet a ...
Wednesday, 16 April 14
INDONESIA'S FEBRUARY 2014 COAL EXPORT VOLUME FELL 2.41%
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world 4th largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.77* billio ...
Wednesday, 16 April 14
Q1 2014 : TERMS OF FREIGHT RATES THE PERFORMANCE IN THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS NOT MET THE HIGH EXPECTATIONS - INTERMODAL
This year the dates for the celebration of Easter will coincide for the Orthodox and the Catholic, so we are already seeing most people in the m ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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