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Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government target of 200 Gigawatts (GW) nuclear power capacity by 2030 due to a number of constraints. The report, titled 'Are China's nuclear power plans achievable?', concludes that while there will be significant progress, with nuclear capacity increasing from 14.6 GW in 2013 to 175 GW by 2030, the missed targets will translate into opportunities for coal producers to capture additional demand growth.
Mr Gavin Thompson, Head of Asia Pacific Gas & Power research for Wood Mackenzie says, "China's environmental measures will drive notable nuclear capacity growth. Additionally, uranium supply will be available for China. However, remaining challenges will result in nuclear falling short of government targets. The government targets 200 GW of nuclear capacity, which would make up 11% of the power generation mix by 2030. In reality, we forecast nuclear capacity to reach 175 GW by then, making up just ten percent of the power generation mix: equivalent to a 2.3% annual growth, from 14.6 GW of nuclear capacity in 2013."
Wood Mackenzie says that by 2030, China's nuclear capacity will account for 30% of the world's total nuclear fleet. Mr Thompson adds, "Putting things into context, in 2013 China made up a mere 4.5% of the global nuclear fleet. Therefore the growth we expect in this timeframe is phenomenal, even if targets are not met."
"What is noteworthy about our forecast is that despite environmental measures pushing for a reduction in coal-fired power generation in China, a shortfall in nuclear capacity will create additional opportunities for coal suppliers, on top of coal remaining the dominant source of base-load electricity," Thompson explains.
Wood Mackenzie's nuclear generation forecast reveals a 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) gap of base-load electricity supply. Coal is expected to meet 125 TWh of the gap while natural gas and renewables accounts for the remainder. Though natural gas production and imports will significantly increase, it will be insufficient to prevent coal from accounting for 64% of the power generation mix by 2030. The report highlights that although coal's share will decline from 75% in 2013, due to the rapid growth in natural gas and renewables capacity, coal will still see net volume growth. Additionally, the one percent upside for coal from nuclear not meeting targets will translate to an additional coal demand of 63 million tonnes per year (mmtpa) by 2025 and 55 mmtpa by 2030.
"Our expectations for a lower level of installed nuclear capacity compared to the government's target are based on a number of factors: operational and siting challenges; constraints on the pace of local nuclear technology development; lack of skilled and trained personnel; lack of supporting infrastructure for uranium fuel fabrication and disposal; and a lack of full support by the public in building inland plants. As such, it's likely that some of the planned and proposed capacity build will be delayed or cancelled," Thompson elaborates.
Mr Thompson concludes, "We took into account these challenges that hold back the development of nuclear but still see China making incredible progress and coming close to government targets of 200 GW by 2030. Our nuclear outlook for China reinforces Wood Mackenzie's view that coal will continue to play a dominant role in power generation in the foreseeable future, even with the successful implementation of new environmental measures. While nuclear will moderate the growth in coal-fired generation, China's coal story is far from over."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Tuesday, 15 April 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 14 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Monday, 14 April 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 60.12 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q4’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
Monday, 14 April 14
INDONESIA'S Q1 COAL PRODUCTION LITTLE CHANGED EVEN WITH PRICE DROP - INVESTOR DAILY
Indonesia’s coal production by volume in the first quarter remained little changed from the same period last year despite the decline in t ...
Monday, 14 April 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN FOR THE MONTH & WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 4.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.18 per mt as ...
Monday, 14 April 14
CHINA'S MEASURES TO STIMULATE ECONOMY'S GROWTH COULD OFFER ROOM FOR STABILITY IN SHIPPING MARKETS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Since the outbreak of the 2008-crisis, the shipping industry, in most of its aspects, i.e. dry bulk and tanker markets alike, has been dealing w ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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