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Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government target of 200 Gigawatts (GW) nuclear power capacity by 2030 due to a number of constraints. The report, titled 'Are China's nuclear power plans achievable?', concludes that while there will be significant progress, with nuclear capacity increasing from 14.6 GW in 2013 to 175 GW by 2030, the missed targets will translate into opportunities for coal producers to capture additional demand growth.
Mr Gavin Thompson, Head of Asia Pacific Gas & Power research for Wood Mackenzie says, "China's environmental measures will drive notable nuclear capacity growth. Additionally, uranium supply will be available for China. However, remaining challenges will result in nuclear falling short of government targets. The government targets 200 GW of nuclear capacity, which would make up 11% of the power generation mix by 2030. In reality, we forecast nuclear capacity to reach 175 GW by then, making up just ten percent of the power generation mix: equivalent to a 2.3% annual growth, from 14.6 GW of nuclear capacity in 2013."
Wood Mackenzie says that by 2030, China's nuclear capacity will account for 30% of the world's total nuclear fleet. Mr Thompson adds, "Putting things into context, in 2013 China made up a mere 4.5% of the global nuclear fleet. Therefore the growth we expect in this timeframe is phenomenal, even if targets are not met."
"What is noteworthy about our forecast is that despite environmental measures pushing for a reduction in coal-fired power generation in China, a shortfall in nuclear capacity will create additional opportunities for coal suppliers, on top of coal remaining the dominant source of base-load electricity," Thompson explains.
Wood Mackenzie's nuclear generation forecast reveals a 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) gap of base-load electricity supply. Coal is expected to meet 125 TWh of the gap while natural gas and renewables accounts for the remainder. Though natural gas production and imports will significantly increase, it will be insufficient to prevent coal from accounting for 64% of the power generation mix by 2030. The report highlights that although coal's share will decline from 75% in 2013, due to the rapid growth in natural gas and renewables capacity, coal will still see net volume growth. Additionally, the one percent upside for coal from nuclear not meeting targets will translate to an additional coal demand of 63 million tonnes per year (mmtpa) by 2025 and 55 mmtpa by 2030.
"Our expectations for a lower level of installed nuclear capacity compared to the government's target are based on a number of factors: operational and siting challenges; constraints on the pace of local nuclear technology development; lack of skilled and trained personnel; lack of supporting infrastructure for uranium fuel fabrication and disposal; and a lack of full support by the public in building inland plants. As such, it's likely that some of the planned and proposed capacity build will be delayed or cancelled," Thompson elaborates.
Mr Thompson concludes, "We took into account these challenges that hold back the development of nuclear but still see China making incredible progress and coming close to government targets of 200 GW by 2030. Our nuclear outlook for China reinforces Wood Mackenzie's view that coal will continue to play a dominant role in power generation in the foreseeable future, even with the successful implementation of new environmental measures. While nuclear will moderate the growth in coal-fired generation, China's coal story is far from over."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Tuesday, 29 April 14
Q4 SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 1.07 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q2’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
Tuesday, 29 April 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 3.03 MILLION TONS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 28 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Tuesday, 29 April 14
Q2 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP LOST 0.29% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 0.29 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.43 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 27 April 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market seems to have bottomed out and saw some marginal gains in all segments, said Capt. Reddy of Vistaar Shipping In ...
Friday, 25 April 14
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 19 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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