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Wednesday, 19 March 14
INSTEAD OF DECIDING WHETHER THE GLASS IS HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY, I AM CURRENTLY GLAD THERE IS WATER IN THE GLASS - EVA TZIMA
 By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Right when you think that you have all your facts straight, right when things are stabilizing again for the Dry Bulk market, which was badly battered for the first couple of months of the year but didn’t collapse, a day like last Wednesday comes and makes you reconsider. For most of us who were caught up in the latest news regarding the developments in the Black Sea, the sudden drop of the BDI on Wednesday, caused exclusively by Cape rates plummeting, came as a big slap on the face. And as the market has since shown a cautious yet stable behavior, the drop of last mid-week has somewhat remained away from the spotlight, with some being quick to explain it as just a glitch, which has come and gone fast, probably based on the price performance of iron ore and other commodities. But what exactly caused such a drop in rates?
For the past years, China, the world’s second largest economy, has been considered the pedestal upon which global shipping growth will find a stable footing. The outlook of the dry bulk trade itself, has been inextricably linked to the future of the country’s economy, and despite voices raising concerns every now and then regarding the sustainability of projected growth, formal figures provided by the Chinese government have been reassuring that the country would opt for growth at a slower gear in the coming years, yet a growth that would be more sustainable and at the same time sufficient to drag upwards with it a number of sectors left ailing post 2008.
On Monday last week, news released over the weekend that China’s February exports unexpectedly dropped, sent shockwaves across the markets. This was in fact the biggest drop noted since the financial crisis and an even bigger blow on confidence regarding the country’s growth stability. The data revealed a 18.1% year-on-year decline, while an increase was originally expected. As imports continued growing simultaneously, the country’s trade balance has in fact switched from a surplus in January to a deficit at the end of February, the biggest deficit recorded in the Chinese economy in two years.
The immediate effect, of what was the biggest fall on Chinese exports since August 2009, was the plummeting of the iron ore price for delivery to China, which touched a 17 month low. As the country imports around 2/3 of the global seaborne iron ore, the dry bulk market was destined to feel a big chunk of the pressure mounted. Confidence has dropped quickly especially after the paper market for Q2 2014 took a substantial hit. Talks that due to pressure on commodity prices the Chinese were looking to cancel a number of dry bulk COAs, quickly circulated the market, with rumors mentioning up to forty April onwards soybeans cargoes from ECSA. At the same time, the Capesize Tubarao/Qingdao and Western Australia/China routes noted a sharp fall almost immediately and the domino effect pushed the BDI down.
Currently the market is left a bit numb. The days following Wednesday saw the market noting small daily upticks across the board. It is very difficult at this stage to fully appreciate what the impact regarding Chinese growth will be. Between those who believe that the sharp fall was a correction that just didn’t materialize in a smooth manner and those who see China’s weakening growth shadowing heavily on the long awaited bright days of the dry bulk market, the truth can be most probably found somewhere in the middle. Maybe China’s economy will not grow at the estimated rate, and maybe last week’s glitch was actually a warning sign that shouldn’t be ignored, but at the same time, the fact is that rates are much healthier now than what they were a year ago, so instead of deciding whether the glass is half full or half empty, I am currently glad there is water in the glass.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 March 14
HOLD HARMLESS CLAUSES ARE NOT ALWAYS MUTUAL! - ITIC
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
ITIC provides an insurance related contract review service to all of its members. As the leading professional indemnity i ...
Tuesday, 11 March 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 6.98% LESS COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 10 March 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 2 ...
Tuesday, 11 March 14
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 slip again thi ...
Monday, 10 March 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS LOST 4.28 PERCENT MONTH ON MONTH FOR Q2 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 4.28 percent month on month and closed at US$ 73.97 per mt as on Fr ...
Monday, 10 March 14
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS QUITE FIRM THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was quite firm this past week with BDI sharply increased by 22.65 pct week on week and closed at 1543 points, while ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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