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Wednesday, 19 March 14
INSTEAD OF DECIDING WHETHER THE GLASS IS HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY, I AM CURRENTLY GLAD THERE IS WATER IN THE GLASS - EVA TZIMA
 By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Right when you think that you have all your facts straight, right when things are stabilizing again for the Dry Bulk market, which was badly battered for the first couple of months of the year but didn’t collapse, a day like last Wednesday comes and makes you reconsider. For most of us who were caught up in the latest news regarding the developments in the Black Sea, the sudden drop of the BDI on Wednesday, caused exclusively by Cape rates plummeting, came as a big slap on the face. And as the market has since shown a cautious yet stable behavior, the drop of last mid-week has somewhat remained away from the spotlight, with some being quick to explain it as just a glitch, which has come and gone fast, probably based on the price performance of iron ore and other commodities. But what exactly caused such a drop in rates?
For the past years, China, the world’s second largest economy, has been considered the pedestal upon which global shipping growth will find a stable footing. The outlook of the dry bulk trade itself, has been inextricably linked to the future of the country’s economy, and despite voices raising concerns every now and then regarding the sustainability of projected growth, formal figures provided by the Chinese government have been reassuring that the country would opt for growth at a slower gear in the coming years, yet a growth that would be more sustainable and at the same time sufficient to drag upwards with it a number of sectors left ailing post 2008.
On Monday last week, news released over the weekend that China’s February exports unexpectedly dropped, sent shockwaves across the markets. This was in fact the biggest drop noted since the financial crisis and an even bigger blow on confidence regarding the country’s growth stability. The data revealed a 18.1% year-on-year decline, while an increase was originally expected. As imports continued growing simultaneously, the country’s trade balance has in fact switched from a surplus in January to a deficit at the end of February, the biggest deficit recorded in the Chinese economy in two years.
The immediate effect, of what was the biggest fall on Chinese exports since August 2009, was the plummeting of the iron ore price for delivery to China, which touched a 17 month low. As the country imports around 2/3 of the global seaborne iron ore, the dry bulk market was destined to feel a big chunk of the pressure mounted. Confidence has dropped quickly especially after the paper market for Q2 2014 took a substantial hit. Talks that due to pressure on commodity prices the Chinese were looking to cancel a number of dry bulk COAs, quickly circulated the market, with rumors mentioning up to forty April onwards soybeans cargoes from ECSA. At the same time, the Capesize Tubarao/Qingdao and Western Australia/China routes noted a sharp fall almost immediately and the domino effect pushed the BDI down.
Currently the market is left a bit numb. The days following Wednesday saw the market noting small daily upticks across the board. It is very difficult at this stage to fully appreciate what the impact regarding Chinese growth will be. Between those who believe that the sharp fall was a correction that just didn’t materialize in a smooth manner and those who see China’s weakening growth shadowing heavily on the long awaited bright days of the dry bulk market, the truth can be most probably found somewhere in the middle. Maybe China’s economy will not grow at the estimated rate, and maybe last week’s glitch was actually a warning sign that shouldn’t be ignored, but at the same time, the fact is that rates are much healthier now than what they were a year ago, so instead of deciding whether the glass is half full or half empty, I am currently glad there is water in the glass.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 08 March 14
LETTERS OF INDEMNITY - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In today's trading market, owners are frequently requested to accept a letter of indemnity (LOI) in exchange for complying ...
Friday, 07 March 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO BENEFIT FROM CHINA'S GDP GROWTH TARGET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With the dry bulk market freight rates finally making waves, China's aim of 7.5% GDP growth for 2014 mean once again positive news for the shipping ...
Friday, 07 March 14
RBCT, WORLD'S LARGEST COAL EXPORTING TERMINAL SHIPPED 1.78% LESS COAL MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 4.487 million tons of ...
Friday, 07 March 14
INDONESIA SHIPPED 7% LESS COAL IN JANUARY 2014 COMPARED TO ITS DECEMBER EXPORTS
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world 4th largest coal producer and the Global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.8* billion ...
Friday, 07 March 14
INDONESIA TO PRODUCE 421 MMT OF COAL IN 2014
Coalspot.com: Indonesia finally agreed to increased 2014 coal output by as much as 6 percent to 421 million metric tons from its previous plan, a se ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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