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Wednesday, 19 March 14
INSTEAD OF DECIDING WHETHER THE GLASS IS HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY, I AM CURRENTLY GLAD THERE IS WATER IN THE GLASS - EVA TZIMA
 By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Right when you think that you have all your facts straight, right when things are stabilizing again for the Dry Bulk market, which was badly battered for the first couple of months of the year but didn’t collapse, a day like last Wednesday comes and makes you reconsider. For most of us who were caught up in the latest news regarding the developments in the Black Sea, the sudden drop of the BDI on Wednesday, caused exclusively by Cape rates plummeting, came as a big slap on the face. And as the market has since shown a cautious yet stable behavior, the drop of last mid-week has somewhat remained away from the spotlight, with some being quick to explain it as just a glitch, which has come and gone fast, probably based on the price performance of iron ore and other commodities. But what exactly caused such a drop in rates?
For the past years, China, the world’s second largest economy, has been considered the pedestal upon which global shipping growth will find a stable footing. The outlook of the dry bulk trade itself, has been inextricably linked to the future of the country’s economy, and despite voices raising concerns every now and then regarding the sustainability of projected growth, formal figures provided by the Chinese government have been reassuring that the country would opt for growth at a slower gear in the coming years, yet a growth that would be more sustainable and at the same time sufficient to drag upwards with it a number of sectors left ailing post 2008.
On Monday last week, news released over the weekend that China’s February exports unexpectedly dropped, sent shockwaves across the markets. This was in fact the biggest drop noted since the financial crisis and an even bigger blow on confidence regarding the country’s growth stability. The data revealed a 18.1% year-on-year decline, while an increase was originally expected. As imports continued growing simultaneously, the country’s trade balance has in fact switched from a surplus in January to a deficit at the end of February, the biggest deficit recorded in the Chinese economy in two years.
The immediate effect, of what was the biggest fall on Chinese exports since August 2009, was the plummeting of the iron ore price for delivery to China, which touched a 17 month low. As the country imports around 2/3 of the global seaborne iron ore, the dry bulk market was destined to feel a big chunk of the pressure mounted. Confidence has dropped quickly especially after the paper market for Q2 2014 took a substantial hit. Talks that due to pressure on commodity prices the Chinese were looking to cancel a number of dry bulk COAs, quickly circulated the market, with rumors mentioning up to forty April onwards soybeans cargoes from ECSA. At the same time, the Capesize Tubarao/Qingdao and Western Australia/China routes noted a sharp fall almost immediately and the domino effect pushed the BDI down.
Currently the market is left a bit numb. The days following Wednesday saw the market noting small daily upticks across the board. It is very difficult at this stage to fully appreciate what the impact regarding Chinese growth will be. Between those who believe that the sharp fall was a correction that just didn’t materialize in a smooth manner and those who see China’s weakening growth shadowing heavily on the long awaited bright days of the dry bulk market, the truth can be most probably found somewhere in the middle. Maybe China’s economy will not grow at the estimated rate, and maybe last week’s glitch was actually a warning sign that shouldn’t be ignored, but at the same time, the fact is that rates are much healthier now than what they were a year ago, so instead of deciding whether the glass is half full or half empty, I am currently glad there is water in the glass.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 March 14
US PRODUCED 19.4 MMST OF COAL IN PAST 7 DAYS, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.4 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 06 March 14
PANAMAX MARKET IS STRUGGLING IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Handy/Supra market experienced a rate increase in the Pacific. The activity itself is not too big, but spot tonnage is clearing up and ow ...
Wednesday, 05 March 14
THE BIG BULKERS HAVE IN FACT WITNESSED SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS IN BOTH BASINS
The BDI continues to gain back some of the lost ground, although in reality there isn't a lot to celebrate abou ...
Wednesday, 05 March 14
LEAVE IT TO CAPES TO CHANGE THE DIRECTION OF THE DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable+)
Leave it to Capes to change the direction of the Dry Bulk market. The big bulkers managed to drag the BDI ...
Tuesday, 04 March 14
AUSTRALIA'S NPC TO SHIP 11.85 MMT OF COAL IN MARCH
COALspot.com: In the week ended 3 March 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 3.15 m ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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