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Wednesday, 19 March 14
INSTEAD OF DECIDING WHETHER THE GLASS IS HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY, I AM CURRENTLY GLAD THERE IS WATER IN THE GLASS - EVA TZIMA
 By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Right when you think that you have all your facts straight, right when things are stabilizing again for the Dry Bulk market, which was badly battered for the first couple of months of the year but didn’t collapse, a day like last Wednesday comes and makes you reconsider. For most of us who were caught up in the latest news regarding the developments in the Black Sea, the sudden drop of the BDI on Wednesday, caused exclusively by Cape rates plummeting, came as a big slap on the face. And as the market has since shown a cautious yet stable behavior, the drop of last mid-week has somewhat remained away from the spotlight, with some being quick to explain it as just a glitch, which has come and gone fast, probably based on the price performance of iron ore and other commodities. But what exactly caused such a drop in rates?
For the past years, China, the world’s second largest economy, has been considered the pedestal upon which global shipping growth will find a stable footing. The outlook of the dry bulk trade itself, has been inextricably linked to the future of the country’s economy, and despite voices raising concerns every now and then regarding the sustainability of projected growth, formal figures provided by the Chinese government have been reassuring that the country would opt for growth at a slower gear in the coming years, yet a growth that would be more sustainable and at the same time sufficient to drag upwards with it a number of sectors left ailing post 2008.
On Monday last week, news released over the weekend that China’s February exports unexpectedly dropped, sent shockwaves across the markets. This was in fact the biggest drop noted since the financial crisis and an even bigger blow on confidence regarding the country’s growth stability. The data revealed a 18.1% year-on-year decline, while an increase was originally expected. As imports continued growing simultaneously, the country’s trade balance has in fact switched from a surplus in January to a deficit at the end of February, the biggest deficit recorded in the Chinese economy in two years.
The immediate effect, of what was the biggest fall on Chinese exports since August 2009, was the plummeting of the iron ore price for delivery to China, which touched a 17 month low. As the country imports around 2/3 of the global seaborne iron ore, the dry bulk market was destined to feel a big chunk of the pressure mounted. Confidence has dropped quickly especially after the paper market for Q2 2014 took a substantial hit. Talks that due to pressure on commodity prices the Chinese were looking to cancel a number of dry bulk COAs, quickly circulated the market, with rumors mentioning up to forty April onwards soybeans cargoes from ECSA. At the same time, the Capesize Tubarao/Qingdao and Western Australia/China routes noted a sharp fall almost immediately and the domino effect pushed the BDI down.
Currently the market is left a bit numb. The days following Wednesday saw the market noting small daily upticks across the board. It is very difficult at this stage to fully appreciate what the impact regarding Chinese growth will be. Between those who believe that the sharp fall was a correction that just didn’t materialize in a smooth manner and those who see China’s weakening growth shadowing heavily on the long awaited bright days of the dry bulk market, the truth can be most probably found somewhere in the middle. Maybe China’s economy will not grow at the estimated rate, and maybe last week’s glitch was actually a warning sign that shouldn’t be ignored, but at the same time, the fact is that rates are much healthier now than what they were a year ago, so instead of deciding whether the glass is half full or half empty, I am currently glad there is water in the glass.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 18 March 14
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORT VOLUME FALLS 26.23% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 17 March 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 2 ...
Monday, 17 March 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FOR AVERAGE Q2 14 DELIVERIES LOST 2.59% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 2.59 percent month on month and closed at US$ 74.15 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 16 March 14
BDI DOWN ON LOW CAPESIZE ACTIVITY
COALspot.com: The freight market was slightly soft this week with BDI down by 4.28 pct week on week. The BDI closed at 1,477 points and the cape ...
Friday, 14 March 14
DRY BULK MARKET ENTERS RECOVERY MODE, ON INCREASED CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has entered and sustained higher ground as of this week, on the back on increased Capesize demand. Although the situation in ...
Friday, 14 March 14
US, THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST COAL PRODUCER MINED 75.3 MMST OF COAL IN FEBRUARY; DOWN 10.88% M-M
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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