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Wednesday, 19 March 14
INSTEAD OF DECIDING WHETHER THE GLASS IS HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY, I AM CURRENTLY GLAD THERE IS WATER IN THE GLASS - EVA TZIMA
 By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Right when you think that you have all your facts straight, right when things are stabilizing again for the Dry Bulk market, which was badly battered for the first couple of months of the year but didn’t collapse, a day like last Wednesday comes and makes you reconsider. For most of us who were caught up in the latest news regarding the developments in the Black Sea, the sudden drop of the BDI on Wednesday, caused exclusively by Cape rates plummeting, came as a big slap on the face. And as the market has since shown a cautious yet stable behavior, the drop of last mid-week has somewhat remained away from the spotlight, with some being quick to explain it as just a glitch, which has come and gone fast, probably based on the price performance of iron ore and other commodities. But what exactly caused such a drop in rates?
For the past years, China, the world’s second largest economy, has been considered the pedestal upon which global shipping growth will find a stable footing. The outlook of the dry bulk trade itself, has been inextricably linked to the future of the country’s economy, and despite voices raising concerns every now and then regarding the sustainability of projected growth, formal figures provided by the Chinese government have been reassuring that the country would opt for growth at a slower gear in the coming years, yet a growth that would be more sustainable and at the same time sufficient to drag upwards with it a number of sectors left ailing post 2008.
On Monday last week, news released over the weekend that China’s February exports unexpectedly dropped, sent shockwaves across the markets. This was in fact the biggest drop noted since the financial crisis and an even bigger blow on confidence regarding the country’s growth stability. The data revealed a 18.1% year-on-year decline, while an increase was originally expected. As imports continued growing simultaneously, the country’s trade balance has in fact switched from a surplus in January to a deficit at the end of February, the biggest deficit recorded in the Chinese economy in two years.
The immediate effect, of what was the biggest fall on Chinese exports since August 2009, was the plummeting of the iron ore price for delivery to China, which touched a 17 month low. As the country imports around 2/3 of the global seaborne iron ore, the dry bulk market was destined to feel a big chunk of the pressure mounted. Confidence has dropped quickly especially after the paper market for Q2 2014 took a substantial hit. Talks that due to pressure on commodity prices the Chinese were looking to cancel a number of dry bulk COAs, quickly circulated the market, with rumors mentioning up to forty April onwards soybeans cargoes from ECSA. At the same time, the Capesize Tubarao/Qingdao and Western Australia/China routes noted a sharp fall almost immediately and the domino effect pushed the BDI down.
Currently the market is left a bit numb. The days following Wednesday saw the market noting small daily upticks across the board. It is very difficult at this stage to fully appreciate what the impact regarding Chinese growth will be. Between those who believe that the sharp fall was a correction that just didn’t materialize in a smooth manner and those who see China’s weakening growth shadowing heavily on the long awaited bright days of the dry bulk market, the truth can be most probably found somewhere in the middle. Maybe China’s economy will not grow at the estimated rate, and maybe last week’s glitch was actually a warning sign that shouldn’t be ignored, but at the same time, the fact is that rates are much healthier now than what they were a year ago, so instead of deciding whether the glass is half full or half empty, I am currently glad there is water in the glass.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 21 March 14
MERCURIA ANNOUNCES ACQUISITION OF J.P. MORGAN PHYSICAL COMMODITIES BUSINESS
COALspot.com: Mercuria Energy Group announced that it has reached a definitive agreement with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. to acquire its physica ...
Thursday, 20 March 14
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA RATES HAVE CLIMBED BACK TOWARD USD 11 PMT - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
From a slight improvement in the Atlantic to a more mixed picture this mid week. North Atlantic rounds showing softening signs whereas S ...
Wednesday, 19 March 14
EUROCOKE SUMMIT 2014
Press Release: ThyssenKrupp, Steel Institute VDEh, SSI and more headline Smithers Apex’s Eurocoke Summit
The leading coke, coal and s ...
Wednesday, 19 March 14
DRY BULK MARKET REBOUND LEADS TO MORE NEWBUILDING ORDERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The steady rise of the dry bulk market, as evidenced by the return, yesterday, of the Baltic Dry Index above the 1,500-point mark (1,518), is fu ...
Tuesday, 18 March 14
SECOND QUARTER SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST 3.27% IN A MONTH
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 gained this pa ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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