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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 27 February 14
SHIPPING LOANS WORTH $5 BILLION HAVE CHANGED HANDS OVER THE PAST YEAR, AS FUNDS INVEST IN SHIPPING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Funds investing in shipping has been the "talk of the town" over the past couple of years, as institutional investors, private equity and ...
Thursday, 27 February 14
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS SLIP 26.68 PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 24 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 2. ...
Wednesday, 26 February 14
SMALLER SIZE SEGMENTS HOLDING ON TO THEIR LEVELS; CAPES CORRECTING UPWARDS - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable+)
The Dry Bulk market continued to improve this past week, on the back of rates for the smaller size s ...
Tuesday, 25 February 14
GBCE, A COAL UPGRADING TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPER, APPOINTS RICHARD BULMAN AS PROJECT DIRECTOR
Press Release: GB Clean Energy Ltd. (GBCE) announced today the appointment of Richard Bulman as Project Director. In this capacity Mr. Bulman ...
Tuesday, 25 February 14
ULTRAMAXES ARE THE 'WEAPON OF CHOICE' FOR DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's been a busy start in 2014, as the first month of the year was a rather active in terms of second hand vessel purchases and newbuilding orderin ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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