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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 04 March 14
AUSTRALIA'S NPC TO SHIP 11.85 MMT OF COAL IN MARCH
COALspot.com: In the week ended 3 March 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 3.15 m ...
Tuesday, 04 March 14
HIGHER PRICES AND STEADY FREIGHT RATES LEAD SHIP OWNERS TO TEMPORARILY HALT SECOND HAND VESSEL PURCHASES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the dry bulk market has kept on improving, but at a very slow rate, ship owners have elected to take a step back from the flurry of the S&P m ...
Monday, 03 March 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP (FOB) FOR AVERAGE Q115 CLOSED AT $60.28, $ 1.70 HIGHER THAN 2Q14
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 slightly corrected do ...
Monday, 03 March 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA SWAPS: Q4' 2014 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 1.40 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2' 2014 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 1.90 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.27 per mt as on Fr ...
Monday, 03 March 14
COSTS LIABILITY PASSING DOWN A CHARTERPARTY CHAIN - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Provided that charterparties are on back to back terms, and the claim is successful, liability for costs incurred shoul ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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