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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Sunday, 02 March 14
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY TO FIRM THIS PAST WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady to firm this past week. The BDI was up 7.06 pct and closed at 1258 points and the cape index was also fi ...
Friday, 28 February 14
PTBA TO INCREASE ITS COAL TERMINAL'S LOADING CAPACITY TO 25 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY JULY 2014
COALspot.com: PT. Bukit Asam (PTBA), the Indonesian government owned coal miner operates several coal mining units in Sumatera as well as in Kaliman ...
Friday, 28 February 14
U.S PRODUCED 1.9% LESS COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 28 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET SLOWLY BUT STEADILY FINDS ITS FOOTING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market, hit by the low seasonal demand which is a typical characteristic of the first quarter of each year, is beginning to emerge from ...
Thursday, 27 February 14
PANAMAX : MARKET CONTINUED TO DECLINE IN THE ATLANTIC
Handy
The Atlantic handy/supra market experienced a downward trend this week but not a dramatic one. TA rates are down around USD 800 w-o-w lead b ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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