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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Saturday, 22 February 14
POTEN RAISES THE QUESTION OF ACCURACY IN CALCULATING TANKER FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the tanker market has grown in complexity over the course of the past few years, the question of whether the traditional methods of assessing rat ...
Friday, 21 February 14
INDONESIA PLAN TO CAP COAL OUTPUT AND HIKE ROYALTY; START MUSIC
COALspot.com: Energy and Mineral Resources Ministy of Indonesia is planning to increase the royalty for coal miners particularly for Mining Business ...
Friday, 21 February 14
THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST COAL MINER MINED 19.2 MMST OF COAL IN A WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, mined approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a w ...
Friday, 21 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET SHOWS SIGNS OF LIFE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has slowly started to emerge from the downfall it's been since the start of the year, as rates have began to pick up over the c ...
Friday, 21 February 14
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT CAP TO HURT MINERS RELIANT ON VOLUME GROWTH, FITCH SAYS
Fitch Ratings says that the credit profiles of mining sub-contractors and miners highly reliant on increasing volumes to support high debt servicing w ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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