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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Saturday, 22 February 14
POTEN RAISES THE QUESTION OF ACCURACY IN CALCULATING TANKER FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the tanker market has grown in complexity over the course of the past few years, the question of whether the traditional methods of assessing rat ...
Friday, 21 February 14
INDONESIA PLAN TO CAP COAL OUTPUT AND HIKE ROYALTY; START MUSIC
COALspot.com: Energy and Mineral Resources Ministy of Indonesia is planning to increase the royalty for coal miners particularly for Mining Business ...
Friday, 21 February 14
THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST COAL MINER MINED 19.2 MMST OF COAL IN A WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, mined approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a w ...
Friday, 21 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET SHOWS SIGNS OF LIFE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has slowly started to emerge from the downfall it's been since the start of the year, as rates have began to pick up over the c ...
Friday, 21 February 14
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT CAP TO HURT MINERS RELIANT ON VOLUME GROWTH, FITCH SAYS
Fitch Ratings says that the credit profiles of mining sub-contractors and miners highly reliant on increasing volumes to support high debt servicing w ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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