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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Sunday, 16 February 14
SUPRAMAX : THE FAR EAST/SE ASIA CHARTER RATES FIRMED UP
COALspot.com: The freight market had a mixed reaction this week with BDI increased by 1.37 pct and closing at 1106 points on Valentine day. The cape ...
Friday, 14 February 14
US COAL PRODUCTION STILL SLIPPING
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 17.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 13 February 14
PANAMAX : NOT ENOUGH REQUIREMENTS TO KEEP THE ATLANTIC MARKET FLOATING - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
After the Chinese holidays the week started on a positive note. Owners are talking higher rates but chrtrs are still somehow reluctant to mov ...
Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the ba ...
Wednesday, 12 February 14
NEW BUILDING ORDERS REACHING NEW POST-CRISIS HEIGHTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners are looking to take advantage of the last few attractive deals in the new building market, before prices start climbing to new highs and ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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