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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 12 February 14
2013 WAS THE YEAR OF PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDING - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
COALspot.com: People say that money makes the world go round. Well, can it be that it’s the other way around? Is it possible that money needs ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAP SHOWS STRONG GROWTH IN 2014 SECOND HALF
COALspot.com – Swaps prices slide for thermal coal loading from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the fuel, according SGX.
T ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS SLIDE AROUND 15% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 10 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
SHIP OWNERS INVEST IN 447 NEWBUILDINGS AND SECOND HAND VESSELS DURING JANUARY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite a rough start to the year for the dry bulk freight market and lackluster performance from most other shipping sub-segments, ship owners have ...
Monday, 10 February 14
Q1 2015, API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AROUND $ 2 HIGHER THAN Q2 14 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 delivery lost 2.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 77.28 per mt as on Frid ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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